Oil – plenty of analysts looking for circa $100/bbl

News

Checking through analysts notes and comments for oil, demand is seen as rising:

  • NY has reopened
  • California has reopened

US demand is expected to continue to strengthen on such developments especially during the summer ‘driving season’.

Also:

  • signs of rising traffic across Europe

Outside the US/Europe its not quite so rosy, says Commerzbank:

  • China …  (demand) appears to be cooling again somewhat …  high prices, low refinery margins, fairly high inventories and an increasing focus on electric vehicles are all taking their toll

Other:

Vitol (via a Platts report)

  • expects global oil prices to trade in the $70-80/b range for the remainder of 2021
  • OPEC+ producers maintain their production discipline to accommodate the expected return of Iranian oil exports to the market

Goldman Sachs (Platts again) 

  • warn the end of investment in long-term crude projects and the ripple effect that could have on prices further out (ie higher) 

Glencore (via an ANZ note)

  • global demand should return to normal in the third quarter

Vitol again (via ANZ)

  • diesel and petrochemical demand is already at pre-pandemic levels

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