USD/JPY break of the 61.8% retracement confirmed by the bond market

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY longs have been the trade-of-the-year in the FX market in 2022 and today’s strong jobs numbers make it more likely the trend isn’t over yet.

The pair is up a whopping 220 pips today to 135.06.

The gain wipes out much of a brutal four-day drop in the pair. Technically, it cracks the 61.8% retracement of that move and is now about 250 pips from making the round trip. It also crossed back above the 55-day moving average, which is at 134.04 today.

The July 22 low of 135.56 offered some resistance so far and that is a short-term marker to watch.

What’s encouraging for the bulls is that the latest rally has come on bullish fundamental news. It’s also been confirmed by a strong move in bonds and Fed fund futures. US 2-year yieldshave moved up 20 bps today to 3.24%. That’s erased the late July/early-Augugust decline. Importantly, that decline co-incided with the drop in USD/JPY.

The big risk in the week ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI report. A high number would push up the odds of a 75 basis point cut in September. They’re currently at 68%, which is a big jump from 40% before the non-farm payrolls report. A soft CPI would bring that back down while a strong number would go a long ways towards cementing it.

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