WTI crude oil is down $4.80 to $87.73 today and a big reason why is speculation that the Iran nuclear deal could be revived. European circulated a draft deal last week, calling it the ‘final’ deal and framing it as take-it-or-leave-it.
I get the sense that Iran isn’t done negotiating as it wants guarantees that the US won’t leave the deal when there’s a change in the White House.
In any case, the speculation about what comes next will stop before midnight in Tehran. Iran has a wonky time zone that’s offset by 30 minutes from the vast majority of the world so it’s 6:30 pm there now. Midnight would be 30 minutes before the US equity close but the news is likely to come before then.
The other question is how much of today’s drop in oil is because of Iran and how much is because of Chinese economic data?