AUDUSD continues the post-RBA hike chop

Technical Analysis

The RBA raised rates by 25 basis points which was less than the 50 basis point mostly expected by the market. The action initially sent the AUDUSD lower. It then rallied higher extending above the highs from last week but only by a few pips before rotating back to the downside.

That move to the downside could not take out the low from earlier in the day. Since then the price has continued the up and down shop which has seen the pair traded above and below its 100 and 200 hour moving averages all day long. Those 2 moving averages are converging. The 200 hour moving averages at 0.6492. The 100 hour moving averages at 0.6477.

They should be converged somewhere between those levels within the next 24 hours.

With the price trading above and below the moving averages, the market is saying it’s not sure of what to do next.

On the one hand, the smaller hike favors a wider yield curve spread between the US and Australia. That is more bearish for the pair. On the other hand, a smaller hike may relieve some of the recessionary fears. If inflation does slow and move lower, the combination can be positive for the AUDUSD .

Technically, in the short term watch the 0.6450 level. Move below, increases the bearish bias. On the topside watch the 0.6538 level. Move above, increased the bullish bias.

Meanwhile, the RBNZ is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points in the new trading day (at 9 PM ET).

Looking at its hourly chart below, the price based near the 100 hour MA at 0.5691 currently on two separate tests today (one moved briefly below the level), and trades back above the 200 hour MA at 0.5702. That tilts the bias in the short term to the upside.

ON the topside, the 0.5754 level is the close target level to get to and through followed by the 38.2% of the move down from the September high at 0.57916. Get above those levels are needed to increase the bullish bias at least in the short term.

On the downside, a move below the 100 hour MA would tilt the short term bias back in the favor of the sellers (stay below).

Needless to say, the RBNZ decision should be met with increased volatility. The aforementioned levels are fairly close together, but should give traders the clues needed for understanding the short term bias going forward.