Kharif foodgrain production may drop up to 6% in 2022-23: Origo Commodities

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MMT, which is 1.7% lower than the same period last year.

Production is projected lower due to a decline in acreages by 0.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) while yield is estimated to drop by 0.8% from the previous year. Kharif foodgrain production is estimated to drop by 6.2% y-o-y to 146.39 MMT mainly due to a fall in rice production while Kharif oilseeds production is projected to fall by 8% y-o-y to 21.97 MMT due to a fall in groundnut and castor production.

Among fiber crops, cotton production is estimated to remain higher by 14.2% y-o-y to 36.02 Million Bales while jute and mesta are seen lower by 4.32% y-o-y to 9.87 Million Bales. Sugarcane production is projected to be lower by 0.79% y-o-y to 428.41 MMT.

Total Kharif Crop Production Estimate for the Crop Year 2022-23(Oct-Sept)

table-1Agencies

Source: Origo Commodities

Crop wise Production Details
Cotton production for 2022-23 is increased by 5.3% (or 1.81 MMT) to 36.02 million bales (of 170 kg each) from the previous estimates of 34.21 MMT, it is estimated higher by 14.2% y-o-y against 31.53 million bales in 2021-22. We have increased the crop number from our preliminary estimates by 1.81 million bales, of which 1.03 million bales in Maharashtra and 0.78 million bales in Gujarat as per findings based on our recent crop tours.

Groundnut production is reduced by 13.9% (or 1.13 MMT) to 7 MMT from the previous estimates of 8.13 MMT, crop is estimated lower by 16.4% y-o-y against 8.38 MMT in 2021-22. Groundnut crop is reduced mostly in Gujarat by 0.94 MMT, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh is lower by 0.05 MMT and Andhra Pradesh by 0.07 MMT.

Maize production for 2022-23 is reduced by 2.9% (or 0.64 MMT) to 21.31 MMT from our previous estimates of 21.95 MMT, production is lower by 2.1% from the previous year. Reason is lower yields in the key producing districts of Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka due to heavy rainfall in October resulted in damage to the standing crops, confirmed through our recent crop tours. Production is reduced by 0.59 MMT in Madhya Pradesh and 0.06 MMT in Karnataka from our preliminary estimates.

Rice production for 2022-23 is increased by 2.7% (or 2.65 MMT) to 99.33 MMT from our preliminary estimates of 96.68 MMT. Production is increased in Odisha by 1.35 MMT and Chhattisgarh by 0.76 MMT due to a slight increase in area and improvement in yields, while we reduced production in Uttar Pradesh by 1.47 MMT due to poor yields impacted by rains in October which damaged the standing crops. However, rice production for 2022-23 is estimated to be lower by 11.1% from the previous year.

Soybean production for 2022-23 is reduced by 1.2% (or 0.15 MMT) to 12.33 MMT from our preliminary estimates of 12.48 MMT. Production is reduced in Rajasthan by 0.15 MMT due to a decline in yields by 15% owing to the unseasonal rains which impacted the ready-to-harvest crops. However, soybean production is estimated higher by 3.3% from the previous year.

Tur production for 2022-23 is reduced by 5.4% (or 0.20 MMT) to 3.47 MMT from our preliminary estimates of 3.66 MMT. Production is reduced in Maharashtra by 0.12 MMT, Madhya Pradesh by 0.05 MMT, and Uttar Pradesh by 0.02 MMT owing to the unseasonal rains. Overall, Tur production is estimated lower by 9.8% from the previous year.

Urad production for 2022-23 is reduced by 4.4% (or 0.07 MMT) to 1.53 MMT from our preliminary estimates of 1.6 MMT. Overall, urad production is estimated lower by 11.9% from the previous year. Production is reduced in Madhya Pradesh by 0.03 MMT, Uttar Pradesh by 0.02 MMT, and Maharashtra by 0.03 MMT due to heavy rains in late September/October just before the crop harvest resulted in lower yields.

(The author, Indrajit Paul, is Senior Manager – Commodity Research, Origo Commodities)

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